← The Light Store Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at The Light Store Championship
decks
1
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.5%
avg ELO +2.6 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1376
· median 1376
· range 1376–1376
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1060
Q1 1251
Q3 1457
1593
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 19.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +3.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
