← The Light Store Championship
Water ChessTier 2
at The Light Store Championship
decks
1
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-3-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.3%
avg ELO -10.2 per match
expected value
35.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1060
· median 1060
· range 1060–1060
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1060
Q1 1251
Q3 1457
1593
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 19.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 9.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.8% | -10.7 |
| Water Genbu | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Chess decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
