Fire OblationTier 2
at Magitek Store Champ
decks
3
(12.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
6-9-2
overall winrate
41.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.7%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
47.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1279
· median 1385
· range 1008–1445
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1008
Q1 1280
Q3 1484
1678
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 12.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.4 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 12.0% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 49.1% | -0.6 |
| Water Genbu | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 8.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +11.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.7% | -18.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Water Exia | 4.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.2% | +6.0 |
| Water Fractal | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
