Water Tera KongmingTier 2
at Magitek Store Champ
decks
2
(8.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
5-6-0
overall winrate
45.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.2%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
49.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1329
· median 1329
· range 1235–1423
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1008
Q1 1280
Q3 1484
1678
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 12.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -11.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 12.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.4 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 12.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 8.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.8% | +21.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Water Exia | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Tera Kongming decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
