Water Whirlpool MillTier 1
at Magitek Store Champ
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 12.0% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 50.9% | +0.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 12.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Water Genbu | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -4.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.7% | +6.5 |
| Water Byakko | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Water Fractal | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 47 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 47 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diamond Ribbon | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Angelic Channeling | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enrage | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Benediction Angel | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Four of Diamonds | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annihilation | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Engulf | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Abyssal Heaven | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Glitter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Siphoning Stab | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lost Providence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pearled Prayer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Floral Arrangement | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Transfusive Aura | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Proof of Life | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scarlet Tassel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chime of Endless Dreams | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seething Intercession | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regenerate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Rupture | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Teardrop Diadem | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 |