Water GenbuTier 2
at Magitek Store Champ
decks
2
(8.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-5-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.3%
avg ELO -3.9 per match
expected value
47.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1483
· median 1483
· range 1416–1550
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1008
Q1 1280
Q3 1484
1678
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 12.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 12.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 12.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 8.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.2% | -21.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.9% | -14.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.1% | -22.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Water Byakko | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Water Exia | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
