Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at 店家冠軍賽
decks
2
(13.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-4-0
overall winrate
42.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.0%
avg ELO -5.1 per match
expected value
48.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1396
· median 1396
· range 1311–1482
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1188
Q1 1272
Q3 1432
1491
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 13.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.4 |
| Fire Suited | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.4% | +11.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Cleric | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.8% | -24.4 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
