Fire OblationTier 1
at 店家冠軍賽
decks
2
(13.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
6-2-1
overall winrate
72.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.4%
avg ELO +6.2 per match
expected value
54.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1431
· median 1431
· range 1411–1450
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1188
Q1 1272
Q3 1432
1491
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.3% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 67.2% | +12.9 |
| Fire Suited | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.8 |
| Water Fractal | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Cleric | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Wind Tera Mage | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +11.0 |
