Water FractalTier 2
at 店家冠軍賽
decks
1
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-2-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.6%
avg ELO -2.8 per match
expected value
44.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1263
· median 1263
· range 1263–1263
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1188
Q1 1272
Q3 1432
1491
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 13.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.4 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Cleric | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 6.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
