← HP Wolves Den - Radiant Origins Season Store Championship
Wind Crux LorraineTier 2
at HP Wolves Den - Radiant Origins Season Store Championship
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | -3.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exalted Mordred | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.2% | -9.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.3% | +7.0 |
| Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sasha, Purifying Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sabela, Gossamer Penance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Iridescent Resurgence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Benediction Angel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Gyre | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Four of Spades | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |