← Reaper Game Store - Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at Reaper Game Store - Store Championship
decks
1
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
4-2-0
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.5%
avg ELO +6.7 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1317
· median 1317
· range 1317–1317
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1278
Q1 1308
Q3 1475
1607
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 18.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% | +4.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Water Allies | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
