Fire OblationTier 1
at HIDEOUT'S RDO STORE CHAMPS
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 15.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.5% | -6.2 |
| Water Genbu | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 33.8% | -12.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Resolute Stand, Flamewreath Call, Library Witch. Losers more often ran: Abnegation, Topsy Decree, Hasty Messenger.
Show all 38 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abnegation | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Golden Checkmate | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Ionized Asceticism | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Folded Shadows | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Devouring Malice | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Library Witch | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Angelic Channeling | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rictus Tiding | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Benediction Angel | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reflected Blight | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Spring Cleaning | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |