Water FractalTier 2
at HIDEOUT'S RDO STORE CHAMPS
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 19.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.5% | +6.2 |
| Water Genbu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.2% | -23.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -2.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Water Exia | 3.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 3.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 19 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shademist Priestess | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alice, Golden Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |