Water GenbuTier 2
at HIDEOUT'S RDO STORE CHAMPS
decks
2
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
5-3-0
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
69.1%
avg ELO +9.2 per match
expected value
49.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1313
· median 1313
· range 1247–1379
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1113
Q1 1252
Q3 1418
1633
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 19.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Water Fractal | 15.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.5% | +20.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.6% | +26.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Water Neos | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
