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Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Grand Archive Singapore Regionals
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 52.7% | +1.4 |
| Wind Allies | 16.0% | 9 | 4-3-2 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 49.1% | -0.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.5% | +10.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane Rai | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |