← Grand Archive Singapore Regionals
Fire EruptingTier 2
at Grand Archive Singapore Regionals
decks
4
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
26
11-14-1
overall winrate
44.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.7%
avg ELO -3.8 per match
expected value
44.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1241
· median 1230
· range 1133–1372
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1041
Q1 1165
Q3 1337
1685
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 43.6% | -3.2 |
| Wind Allies | 16.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 28.1% | -16.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.9% | +2.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.7% | -5.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -4.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -4.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane Rai | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.1% | +8.7 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Zander | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
