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Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Grand Archive Singapore Regionals
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 15 | 8-7-0 | 53.3% | 52.6% | 42.9% | -2.9 |
| Wind Allies | 16.0% | 11 | 8-2-1 | 77.3% | 70.0% | 60.6% | +4.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.0% | 7 | 4-1-2 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 53.0% | +1.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 38.9% | -8.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Fire Erupting | 4.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.3% | +5.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.9% | +5.7 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane Rai | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.6% | +4.4 |
| Wind Zander | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Vaporjet Shieldbearer, Snow Fairy, Fractal of Intrusion. Losers more often ran: Freezing Steel.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primordial Ritual | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sink into Oblivion | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Reprogram | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hypothermia | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Freezing Hail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Smash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |