Water FractalTier 2
at 三咖啡店冠賽
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 17.4% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 30.9% | -12.2 |
| Water Genbu | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.8% | +8.5 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Water Exalted Mordred | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.4% | -13.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.0% | -9.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +5.7 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shademist Priestess | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |