Water GenbuTier 1
at 三咖啡店冠賽
decks
2
(8.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
5-3-1
overall winrate
61.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.1%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
52.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1331
· median 1331
· range 1309–1353
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1023
Q1 1214
Q3 1431
1543
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 17.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.8 |
| Water Fractal | 17.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 35.2% | -14.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Water Exalted Mordred | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
