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Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 8 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 8 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lavastorm | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |