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Water FractalTier 2
at Home-run RDO Store Championships
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-4-1
overall winrate
55.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.3%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
48.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1380
· median 1380
· range 1328–1432
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1222
Q3 1392
1546
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.1 |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.5% | -2.5 |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.9 |
| Water Chess | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.5 |
| Wind Byakko | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 53.1% | +3.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.4 |
