EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 2026/05/02 RiRiCO 店冠賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Oblation | 3 | 15.8% | 18 | 80.6% | 61.7% | 60.8% | 54.6% | 1453 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 5.3% | 8 | 87.5% | 61.8% | 58.6% | 53.9% | 1535 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 10.5% | 13 | 57.7% | 50.5% | 52.3% | 50.3% | 1510 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 64.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | 1135 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Slimes | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 50.0% | 54.5% | 49.4% | 52.3% | 1285 | — |
| 6 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 5.3% | 7 | 42.9% | 55.8% | 47.3% | 51.4% | 1326 | — |
| 7 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 10.5% | 11 | 36.4% | 42.4% | 47.0% | 48.2% | 1361 | — |
| 8 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 47.6% | 45.7% | 51.0% | 1095 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Neos | 2 | 10.5% | 10 | 35.0% | 32.4% | 45.6% | 43.6% | 1294 | — |
| 10 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 43.3% | 45.0% | 45.5% | 1284 | — |
| 11 | Water Fractal | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 40.1% | 45.0% | 46.0% | 1140 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 10.5% | 11 | 31.8% | 45.2% | 44.9% | 48.6% | 1276 | — |
| 13 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 10.5% | 11 | 31.8% | 46.9% | 44.5% | 49.2% | 1347 | — |