Water AetherwingTier 1
at Inferno Store Champ 100526
decks
2
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-3-2
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.9%
avg ELO +2.5 per match
expected value
51.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1425
· median 1425
· range 1358–1492
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1110
Q1 1195
Q3 1389
1584
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 25.0% | 4 | 0-2-2 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 44.2% | -3.7 |
| Water Exia | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.2% | +8.8 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.2% | +8.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
