Water ExiaTier 2
at Inferno Store Champ 100526
decks
2
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.1%
avg ELO -3.1 per match
expected value
44.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1231
· median 1231
· range 1190–1272
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1110
Q1 1195
Q3 1389
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 25.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.8% | -8.8 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.1% | +22.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Alice | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
