EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Aria's Birthday Tournament!.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 70.0% | 50.9% | 63.9% | 51.2% | 1250 | — |
| 2 | Slimes | 5 | 25.0% | 19 | 73.7% | 51.9% | 60.4% | 51.0% | 1294 | — |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 5.0% | 6 | 83.3% | 51.9% | 55.7% | 50.5% | 1311 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 50.0% | 49.4% | 55.7% | 50.3% | 1339 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Neos | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 50.6% | 54.6% | 50.4% | 1239 | — |
| 6 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 70.0% | 51.1% | 52.1% | 50.2% | 1445 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 50.0% | 49.9% | 45.6% | 49.5% | 1361 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Allies | 1 | 5.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.5% | 44.5% | 49.5% | 1247 | — |
| 9 | Wind Allies | 5 | 25.0% | 20 | 30.0% | 48.5% | 42.0% | 49.2% | 1241 | — |
| 10 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 5.0% | 2 | 25.0% | 49.4% | 41.7% | 49.4% | 1251 | — |
| 11 | Norm Crux Merlin | 1 | 5.0% | 2 | 0.0% | 48.5% | 40.0% | 49.1% | 1109 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 10.0% | 9 | 16.7% | 48.0% | 37.6% | 48.9% | 1150 | ↓ low |