← Regional Event - The Banish Zone
Fire AggroTier 1
at Regional Event - The Banish Zone
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 23.5% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 52.5% | +1.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.1 |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 57 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 57 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Excoriate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Banner Knight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Adversity | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Tear | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Channeling Stone | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Powered Sentinel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Arsonist | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Firetuned Automaton | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blitz Mage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blast Shield | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Shield | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embershield Keeper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Warcry | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strapping Conscript | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |