← Regional Event - The Banish Zone
Water Astra ArisannaTier 2
at Regional Event - The Banish Zone
decks
1
(2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-2-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.3%
avg ELO -5.0 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1122
· median 1122
· range 1122–1122
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1201
Q3 1329
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 23.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -2.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Astra Arisanna decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
