← Regional Event - The Banish Zone
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Regional Event - The Banish Zone
decks
3
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
4-8-3
overall winrate
36.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.5%
avg ELO -3.9 per match
expected value
42.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1373
· median 1340
· range 1329–1451
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1201
Q3 1329
1656
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 23.5% | 7 | 2-3-2 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 41.5% | -4.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.5% | -11.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.6% | -16.7 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Water Beast | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
