Wind AlliesTier 1
at Grand Archive
decks
7
(15.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
32
18-11-3
overall winrate
60.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.1%
avg ELO +2.6 per match
expected value
54.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1333
· median 1262
· range 1134–1689
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
1053
Q1 1152
Q3 1336
1689
43% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
14% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.2% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.3 |
| Slimes | 11.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.3% | +14.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.4% | -4.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.8% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -1.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.8% | -7.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.0% | +15.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.6% | +4.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.6% | +9.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
| Water Diana | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tonoris | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Aesan Protector, Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa, Inspiring Call. Losers more often ran: Rallied Advance, Cry for Help, Manufacture Cell.
Aesan Protector
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Inspiring Call
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Dream Fairy
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 3.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Woodland Squirrels
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Deflecting Edge
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Rallied Advance
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Cry for Help
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Manufacture Cell
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Second Wind
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Trained Hawk
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Zephyr
Losing decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
winning decks 2.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 74 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 54 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aesan Protector | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Rallied Advance | -0.50 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Cry for Help | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Manufacture Cell | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Second Wind | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Vigilant Sentry | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Trained Hawk | -0.33 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Zephyr | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Charged Mannequin | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Attune with the Winds | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Outlook | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Armored Valkyrie | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Displace | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cell Vanguard | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windpiercer | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diablerie | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasoned Shieldmaster | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rusted Warshield | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Winds of Retribution | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mark of Fervor | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Take Point | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Into the Fray | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 |