← Game Nut Mercurial Heart Store Champ

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Game Nut Mercurial Heart Store Champ. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Allies 3 12.5% 15 60.0% 62.1% 55.4% 56.2% 1196 ↓ low
2 Wind Diana 1 4.2% 5 60.0% 48.8% 55.0% 51.7% 1447 ↑ top
3 Water Neos 1 4.2% 5 60.0% 59.5% 54.7% 56.2% 1202
4 Wind Silvie 1 4.2% 5 60.0% 52.8% 53.6% 51.5% 1454 ↑ top
5 Fire Aggro 1 4.2% 5 40.0% 48.5% 53.3% 55.4% 1202
6 Wind Shadowstrike 1 4.2% 4 50.0% 52.0% 53.0% 53.0% 1145 ↓ low
7 Water Ravishing Mill 2 8.3% 12 62.5% 60.5% 52.8% 53.4% 1312 ↑ top
8 Water Allies 2 8.3% 8 68.8% 58.8% 52.7% 51.3% 1267
9 Wind Luxem Assassin 1 4.2% 6 66.7% 54.0% 51.2% 48.9% 1253
10 Fire Crux Mage 2 8.3% 11 54.5% 52.9% 50.9% 50.6% 1345 ↑ top
11 Fire Erupting 1 4.2% 5 40.0% 37.6% 48.1% 45.0% 1225
12 Fire Arcane 2 8.3% 7 28.6% 38.1% 45.4% 45.9% 1152 ↓ low
13 Slimes 5 20.8% 16 31.2% 36.7% 44.3% 44.6% 1162 ↓ low
14 Wind Neos 1 4.2% 4 0.0% 27.6% 40.0% 40.3% 1143 ↓ low