LGS ALC Regional

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Water Allies	Tier 2	4	22.2%	7-6-0	53.8%	48.6%	49.5%	47.7%	1177	↓ low
2		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	3	16.7%	4-5-1	45.0%	45.0%	48.7%	48.7%	1398	↑ top
3		Wind Crux Lorraine	Tier 1	3	16.7%	7-6-1	53.6%	57.0%	52.0%	54.5%	1304	—
4		Fire Umbra Ranger	Tier 1	2	11.1%	6-2-2	70.0%	62.1%	55.4%	54.3%	1582	↑ top
5		Fire Aggro	Tier 2	1	5.6%	2-3-0	40.0%	43.9%	46.7%	46.5%	1152	↓ low
6		Fire Arcane	Tier 2	1	5.6%	1-2-1	37.5%	40.3%	47.5%	46.2%	1607	↑ top
7		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 2	1	5.6%	1-3-0	25.0%	41.4%	41.0%	43.5%	1381	—
8		Fire Diana	Tier 2	1	5.6%	1-3-0	25.0%	45.1%	41.8%	44.9%	1278	—
9		Fire Erupting	Tier 2	1	5.6%	0-3-0	0.0%	27.7%	40.0%	39.6%	1171	↓ low
10		Wind Allies	Tier 1	1	5.6%	4-0-1	90.0%	71.7%	58.5%	58.3%	1274	—

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Water Allies 4 decks · 22.2%
• Fire Luxem Assassin 3 decks · 16.7%
• Wind Crux Lorraine 3 decks · 16.7%
• Fire Umbra Ranger 2 decks · 11.1%
• Fire Aggro 1 deck · 5.6%
• Fire Arcane 1 deck · 5.6%
• Fire Crux Mage 1 deck · 5.6%
• Fire Diana 1 deck · 5.6%
• Fire Erupting 1 deck · 5.6%
• Wind Allies 1 deck · 5.6%