Fire Umbra RangerTier 1
at LGS ALC Regional
decks
2
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
6-2-2
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.1%
avg ELO +5.4 per match
expected value
55.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1582
· median 1582
· range 1578–1587
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1076
Q1 1179
Q3 1427
1607
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 22.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 16.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.3% | +7.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 16.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.7% | -6.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.5% | +13.9 |
| Fire Diana | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.5 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Umbra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
