Water AlliesTier 2
at LGS ALC Regional
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 16.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -3.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 16.7% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 40.3% | -5.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Fire Diana | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sword of Adversity | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tidal Sweep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Genesis Aegis | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |