Fire Crux MerlinTier 1
at Hobby Outpost MRC SC
decks
1
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.7%
avg ELO -1.9 per match
expected value
52.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1322
· median 1322
· range 1322–1322
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1135
Q1 1241
Q3 1444
1571
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 27.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.2% | -7.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 18.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.6% | +14.9 |
| Fire Erupting | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.6% | -15.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
