Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Hobby Outpost MRC SC
decks
2
(18.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
2-5-1
overall winrate
31.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.4%
avg ELO -5.6 per match
expected value
43.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1459
· median 1459
· range 1383–1535
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1135
Q1 1241
Q3 1444
1571
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 27.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 9.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.4% | -14.9 |
| Fire Erupting | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Slimes | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.5% | -23.2 |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.6% | +11.1 |
