Water AlliesTier 1
at Hobby Outpost MRC SC
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 18.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.8% | +7.8 |
| Fire Erupting | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.7% | -4.2 |
| Slimes | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Wind Allies | 9.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 45 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 45 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteemed Knight | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sable Remnant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Charged Mannequin | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Hired Blade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Intrepid Highwayman | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tristan, Shadowdancer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Freezing Hail | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reprogram | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |