EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Mercurial Heart Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Slimes

51.8%

37.5% share · 7 matches

1st

Fire Luxem Assassin

54.8%

12.5% share · 5 matches

37.5% share · 7 matches

↑ top

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Luxem Assassin	1	12.5%	5	60.0%	53.3%	54.8%	53.2%	1405	↑ top
2	Slimes	3	37.5%	7	57.1%	56.9%	51.8%	53.3%	1245	—
3	Wind Allies	3	37.5%	7	42.9%	44.5%	48.7%	47.8%	1262	↑ top
4	Fire Aggro	1	12.5%	1	0.0%	40.9%	40.0%	40.9%	1262	↑ top