← Good Games Town Hall: MRC Regionals
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Good Games Town Hall: MRC Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 90.0% | 65.9% | 58.8% | 56.8% | 1547 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Zander | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 80.0% | 58.8% | 58.7% | 56.0% | 1552 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Lorraine | 2 | 7.4% | 7 | 57.1% | 44.5% | 55.6% | 52.0% | 1570 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Slimes | 6 | 22.2% | 22 | 56.8% | 48.8% | 53.9% | 50.8% | 1305 | — |
| 5 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 70.0% | 69.4% | 53.8% | 56.6% | 1366 | — |
| 6 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 11.1% | 18 | 69.4% | 63.2% | 53.0% | 52.8% | 1327 | — |
| 7 | Wind Overlord | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 40.0% | 50.6% | 52.7% | 55.9% | 1197 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Umbra Tristan | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 60.0% | 62.2% | 51.1% | 55.2% | 1456 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Crux Merlin | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 50.0% | 46.9% | 50.7% | 49.6% | 1223 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 50.0% | 56.1% | 50.0% | 53.8% | 1239 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 3.7% | 4 | 37.5% | 39.9% | 50.0% | 49.5% | 1424 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 3.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 38.8% | 46.4% | 47.4% | 1169 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Allies | 2 | 7.4% | 5 | 20.0% | 39.0% | 42.9% | 44.6% | 1186 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Allies | 4 | 14.8% | 17 | 26.5% | 37.0% | 42.6% | 46.6% | 1238 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 7.4% | 8 | 12.5% | 33.7% | 40.0% | 42.9% | 1218 | ↓ low |