EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Mercurial Heart Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Wind Allies

51.4%

12.5% share · 3 matches

1st

Wind Shadowstrike

58.3%

37.5% share · 5 matches

12.5% share · 3 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Shadowstrike	3	37.5%	5	80.0%	64.6%	58.3%	58.8%	1401	↑ top
2	Wind Allies	1	12.5%	3	66.7%	57.4%	51.4%	52.1%	1294	—
3	Water Zander	1	12.5%	3	33.3%	46.1%	48.6%	50.1%	1275	—
4	Fire Slimes	3	37.5%	5	20.0%	32.6%	41.7%	40.2%	1250	↓ low