Fire EruptingTier 2
at REGIONALS
decks
3
(11.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19
6-10-3
overall winrate
39.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.2%
avg ELO -2.6 per match
expected value
46.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1211
· median 1162
· range 1150–1322
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1178
Q3 1364
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 23.1% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 46.9% | -1.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 7.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.5% | +14.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rogue | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Neos | 3.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.9% | -13.5 |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Erupting decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
