Fire Umbra RangerTier 1
at REGIONALS
decks
2
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
10-3-0
overall winrate
76.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
65.5%
avg ELO +6.5 per match
expected value
51.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1350
· median 1350
· range 1332–1368
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1178
Q3 1364
1599
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 23.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.4% | -16.9 |
| Fire Erupting | 11.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.3% | +12.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.5% | +14.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.9 |
| Rogue | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Umbra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
