Water Dawn of AshesTier 2
at REGIONALS
decks
1
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.8%
avg ELO -2.8 per match
expected value
46.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1169
· median 1169
· range 1169–1169
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1178
Q3 1364
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 23.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Fire Erupting | 11.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rogue | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Dawn of Ashes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
