← Mercurial Heart Store Championship
Dawn of AshesTier 2
at Mercurial Heart Store Championship
decks
1
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-3-1
overall winrate
30.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.3%
avg ELO -6.2 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1114
· median 1114
· range 1114–1114
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1060
Q1 1217
Q3 1339
1517
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 29.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Neos | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -2.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Dawn of Ashes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
