← Mercurial Heart Store Championship
Wind NeosTier 2
at Mercurial Heart Store Championship
decks
2
(11.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-4-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.3%
avg ELO -2.7 per match
expected value
45.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1288
· median 1288
· range 1217–1359
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1060
Q1 1217
Q3 1339
1517
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 29.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.5% | -17.8 |
| Wind Allies | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.1 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Neos | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Slimes | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.8 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Wind Neos decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
