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Fire EruptingTier 2
at Aria's Cardshop MRC Regionals (ONLINE)
decks
2
(4.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
5-7-0
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.5%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
49.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1337
· median 1337
· range 1277–1396
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1107
Q1 1273
Q3 1433
1689
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.9% | +0.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +3.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.5 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
