← Grand Archive Store Championships
Fire ArcaneTier 2
at Grand Archive Store Championships
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 25.0% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 53.4% | +1.7 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 15.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.2% | -16.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 5.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.6% | -5.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Wind Neos | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 61 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 61 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Magus Disciple | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellshield: Arcane | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Voltaic Sphere | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Power Overwhelming | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Erratic Bolt | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tome of Sacred Lightning | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Arcane Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blitz Mage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Arcane Disposition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Careful Study | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mana Limiter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rai, Spellcrafter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Orb of Glitter | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impassioned Tutor | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Barrier Servant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peer into Mana | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Arcanist's Prism | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Anger the Skies | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Endura, Scepter of Ignition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crystal of Empowerment | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Synth Disrupter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm Tyrant's Eye | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surveillance Stone | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jewel of Enlightenment | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arcane Elemental | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |