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Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2

at Grand Archive Store Championships

decks
5 (25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17 5-11-1
overall winrate
32.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.8% avg ELO -4.8 per match
expected value
42.0% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.1% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1179 · median 1194 · range 1074–1256 (5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1074 Q1 1178 Q3 1263 1382
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 40% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Arcane 20.0% 7 3-4-0 42.9% 45.5% 46.6% -1.7
Water Astra Cleric 15.0% 3 0-2-1 16.7% 35.7% 36.5% -10.1
Slimes 10.0% 0
Water Crux Mage 5.0% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 36.5% -12.9
Water Overlord 5.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.5% -15.2
Water Ravishing Mill 5.0% 0
Wind Allies 5.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.8% -0.2
Wind Luxem Assassin 5.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 51.0% +0.9
Wind Neos 5.0% 0
Decklists · 5 from this event

The 5 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Cleansing Reunion +1.00 1 0 0
Reclaim +1.00 1 0 0
Resolute Stand +1.00 1 0 0
Shadeblood Coating -1.00 0 1 0
Assassin's Mantle -1.00 0 1 0
Gloamspire Mantle -1.00 0 1 0
Shimmercloak Assassin -1.00 0 1 0
Grim Foreboding -1.00 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 1 0 0
Dungeon Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Veiling Breeze +1.00 1 0 0
Sable Remnant -1.00 0 1 0
Stifling Trap +1.00 1 0 0
Idle Thoughts -1.00 0 1 0
Shadow Resonance -1.00 0 1 0
Backup Charger +1.00 1 0 0
Shifting Mirage -1.00 0 1 0
Windmill Engineer +1.00 1 0 0
Hurricane Sweep +1.00 1 0 0
Nullifying Lantern +1.00 1 0 0
Assassin's Ripper -1.00 0 1 0
Turbo Charge +1.00 1 0 0
Exploit Vulnerability -1.00 0 1 0
Reprogram +1.00 1 0 0
Safeguard Amulet +1.00 1 0 0
Fairy Whispers +1.00 1 0 0
Swift Recruit +1.00 1 0 0
Sadi, Blood Harvester +1.00 1 0 0
Tristan, Shadowreaver -1.00 0 1 0
Cloaked Executioner -1.00 0 1 0
Arrow Trap +1.00 1 0 0
Tariff Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Mastermind Scheme +1.00 1 0 0
Betraying Blade -1.00 0 1 0
Thieving Cut -1.00 0 1 0
Zephyr +1.00 1 0 0
Corhazi Outlook +1.00 1 0 0
Dream Fairy +1.00 1 0 0
Poisoned Dagger -1.00 0 1 0
Sirocco Operative -1.00 0 1 0
Haunting Demise -1.00 0 1 0
Blackmarket Broker +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/7492/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike