← Grand Archive Store Championships
Water Crux MageTier 1
at Grand Archive Store Championships
decks
1
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
4-0-1
overall winrate
90.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
66.5%
avg ELO +9.5 per match
expected value
62.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
59.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1305
· median 1305
· range 1305–1305
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1074
Q1 1178
Q3 1263
1382
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 25.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.5% | +12.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 20.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 15.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Water Overlord | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -3.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Wind Neos | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
