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Water Astra ClericTier 1

at Grand Archive Store Championships

decks
3 (15.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11 2-5-4
overall winrate
36.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.2% avg ELO -3.8 per match
expected value
51.8% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.9% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1192 · median 1193 · range 1157–1226 (3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1074 Q1 1178 Q3 1263 1382
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Shadowstrike 25.0% 3 2-0-1 83.3% 64.3% 63.5% +10.1
Fire Arcane 20.0% 0
Slimes 10.0% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 42.5% -7.2
Water Crux Mage 5.0% 0
Water Overlord 5.0% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 5.0% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 34.9% -14.5
Wind Allies 5.0% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.5% +0.8
Wind Luxem Assassin 5.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.6% -15.0
Wind Neos 5.0% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 42.2% -7.5
Decklists · 3 from this event

The 3 public Water Astra Cleric decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 1 card with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 1 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Reflect the Skies +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/7492/archetypes/Water Astra Cleric