← Card Caster Store Championship Mercurial Heart
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Card Caster Store Championship Mercurial Heart.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 25.0% | 4 | 100.0% | 68.2% | 63.3% | 60.3% | 1401 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 56.6% | 52.0% | 52.2% | 1262 | — |
| 3 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 59.0% | 52.0% | 53.3% | 1262 | — |
| 4 | Slimes | 2 | 25.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 36.2% | 41.3% | 42.6% | 1170 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 12.5% | 2 | 0.0% | 36.3% | 40.0% | 41.8% | 1083 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Neos | 1 | 12.5% | 1 | 0.0% | 40.2% | 40.0% | 40.2% | 1153 | ↓ low |